UN Publishes world Population Scenario for 2024

The recent “World Population Outlook 2024” study by the United Nations gives us much more information about how many people are expected to live on Earth in the future. According to the main conclusions, the world population will peak in the mid-1980s, at about 10.3 billion people. Subsequently, a gradual decline will begin until the end of the century. The fact that this peak is approximately 700 million less than ten years ago shows that demographic trends have changed.

Factors affecting population growth

Low birth rates in some of the world’s most populous countries, such as China, are responsible for the change in demographic forecasts. These changes are having a major impact on the demographic landscape and are giving us a new way to think about how populations will change in the future. This earlier arrival of this population peak is also considered good for the environment because it can reduce the stress that human consumption places on the planet’s resources.

Global distribution and aging

More than a quarter of the world’s population lives in countries such as China, Russia, Japan and Germany, where population growth has stagnated. This group will grow as countries like Brazil, Iran and Turkey experience their most populous decades over the next 30 years. Furthermore, the population of more than 120 countries will continue to grow even after 2054. This includes large countries such as India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States. The age of people in the population is also changing. Based on observed post-Covid trends, life expectancy will increase from an average of 73.3 years in 2024 to 77.4 years in 2054. By the end of the 2070s, it is expected that there will be more adults aged 65 and over than under 18 years old. This means that the world’s population is aging rapidly.

Transcendence

The world’s population is aging and will eventually decline, bringing with it problems and possibilities. This may help the environment in some ways by reducing overall consumption, but it also makes people more aware of the need to live in a way that is good for the environment. Additionally, governments around the world may face issues due to aging populations, such as labor shortages and increased healthcare needs. In conclusion, understanding these demographic trends is important for policymaking and long-term development, as they will have important impacts on the world’s social, economic and environmental environments in the future.

About the United Nations demographic outlook

Global and regional trends: The United Nations Population Prospects Study estimates that the world population will reach approximately 10.4 billion by 2100, and that India will overtake China to become the most populous country by 2023. Africa is known for its significant population growth and Nigeria is expected to become the third most populous country by 2050.

Longevity and migration: By 2050, global life expectancy is projected to reach approximately 77 years, reflecting improvements in healthcare. Conversely, Europe’s population may decline due to falling birth rates and increasing longevity. Migration plays an important but complex role in shaping demographic changes, especially in developed regions.

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